Markets are facing rising geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty that are clouding the growth outlook—despite signs of underlying economic resilience. Our Quarterly Outlook explores the risks, sources of stability, and key areas to watch as we enter into the second

Even though unemployment rose in the third quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy showed strong momentum due to robust consumer spending. Our Quarterly Outlook explores the risks, sources of stability, and key areas to watch as we enter into 2026. Main

The U.S. job market has cooled notably, with job gains slowing and consumer sentiment weakening, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Still, economic growth and consumer spending remain resilient, supporting a 3.8% annualized expansion in Q3 and keeping

After a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, growth rebounded in the second quarter. The labor market remains resilient, while inflation shows signs of gradual moderation. Focus Partners' Kevin Grogan looks ahead to the second half of 2025, sharing our

Main Takeaway Uncertainty around trade policy continues to weigh on the U.S. economy, with signs of slowing emerging in the second half of the year. Real final private demand (GDP less more volatile components such as inventories, trade, and government spending)